Uncertainty is the New Seasonality

March 4th marked a turning point. After months of looming threats, US tariffs on Canadian exports became a reality, injecting uncertainty into the economy and financial markets. A short-lived exemption—first for automotive exports, then expanded to all CUSMA-compliant goods—offered temporary relief. But the long-term effects on one of the world's strongest trade partnerships had already begun to take hold.For British Columbia, the impact of a prolonged trade war is concerning but less severe than in other provinces. In 2024, BC exported $54.5 billion in merchandise, with 53% ($28.7 billion) going to the US—far less exposure than Alberta (89%), Ontario (77%), or Quebec (75%). That said, rerouting billions in exports and replacing entrenched trade relationships will be no small feat.The economic effects are mixed. Declining trade and shaken consumer confidence create downward pressure on inflation, but Canada’s retaliatory tariffs push in the opposite direction. The Bank of Canada now faces a balancing act. Most economists predict deeper interest rate cuts as a result. The Bank’s March 12th decision to lower its policy rate by 25 basis points signals an effort to counteract economic uncertainty, acknowledging that consumers and businesses are pulling back.

Vancouver’s Housing Market: A Shift in MomentumThis uncertainty is already influencing Vancouver’s housing market. Typically, home sales surge 49% from January to February. This year, the increase was just 14%. After four months of steady year-over-year growth, February marked a reversal. Home sales fell to 2,665—down 18% from last year and 35% below the 10-year February average of 4,084.At the same time, inventory levels have jumped. By the end of February, there were 19,482 active listings—a 42% increase from last year and 50% above the 10-year February average (12,968 listings). For buyers, this means more choices and less pressure.Looking ahead, typical spring market trends may take a backseat to larger economic forces. Instead of seasonality driving activity, macro-ality—broader economic shifts—will likely determine how the next few months play out.

North Vancouver Market Update

Detached Homes: A Sellers’ Market, But Momentum is Slowing

Inventory: 221 listings (+13% month-over-month, +32% year-over-year)
Sales: 48 (+14% month-over-month, +17% year-over-year)
Sales-to-Listings Ratio: 22% (sellers' market)
Median Price: $2,262,751 (+1.1% month-over-month, +5% year-over-year)
Average Price: $2,427,691 (-7% month-over-month, +2% year-over-year)

Detached home sales remain strong, but the decline in average prices suggests buyers are negotiating harder. Inventory growth is giving them more leverage, but the sellers' market persists for now.

Townhomes: More Listings, Softer Demand

Inventory: 105 listings (+30% month-over-month, +48% year-over-year)
Sales: 20 (unchanged month-over-month, -26% year-over-year)
Sales-to-Listings Ratio: 19% (balanced market)
Median Price: $1,194,500 (-8% month-over-month, -12% year-over-year)
Average Price: $1,233,500 (-9% month-over-month, -6% year-over-year)

Townhomes are seeing a surge in listings but weaker demand. With sales stagnating and prices softening, this segment is shifting toward a buyer-friendly environment.Condos: More Choice,

Lower Prices

Inventory: 307 listings (+12% month-over-month, +48% year-over-year)
Sales: 76 (-6% month-over-month, -15% year-over-year)
Sales-to-Listings Ratio: 25% (sellers' market)
Median Price: $777,500 (-3% month-over-month, -3% year-over-year)
Average Price: $851,670 (-1.5% month-over-month, -1.6% year-over-year)

Condos still technically favor sellers, but with inventory rising and prices dipping, conditions are shifting. Buyers now have more negotiating power.

Final Thoughts: Where Do We Go from Here?

The impact of US tariffs is rippling through every aspect of the economy, and real estate is no exception. Interest rate cuts may help offset some uncertainty, but this is a market where strategy, not speculation, wins.

For Buyers: The Window of Opportunity is Open

With rising inventory, slower price growth, and more negotiability, buyers who are ready to act have a real advantage. The market is shifting, and with less competition than in recent years, this could be a prime time to secure the right home under favourable conditions. The key is knowing which properties are priced right and which sellers are motivated—a skill that comes with deep local expertise.

For Sellers: Strategic Positioning is Everything
While demand is still present, buyers are becoming more selective.

Overpriced homes are sitting longer, and well-priced, well-marketed homes are moving. To stay competitive:·

Price smart—homes that reflect current market realities will sell faster and for the best price. Stand out—staging, high-quality marketing, and a strong online presence are essential.
Be flexible—negotiability on terms can make your home the clear choice for a buyer.
List sooner rather than later—uncertainty is the wildcard, and getting ahead of further shifts could work in your favour.

What Does This Mean for Presale?

For those considering a new home purchase, the current economic climate presents a unique window of opportunity—especially for well-located, well-designed townhomes that offer both functionality and lifestyle appeal. With interest rates expected to decline, many buyers are looking to secure pricing now before market conditions shift again.At the same time, developers are adapting. Some are offering more flexible deposit structures or valuable incentives to attract buyers who are ready to move forward. For those who have been weighing the decision between resale and presale, this moment offers a rare advantage—the ability to lock in a brand-new, thoughtfully designed home in a community that aligns with your lifestyle goals.The key is knowing which opportunities provide the best long-term value. With a market that remains fundamentally supply-constrained over time, securing the right home before competition heats up again could be a smart move. If you're thinking about making a presale purchase, let’s talk about what’s available and how to position yourself ahead of the market.

Navigating This Market: Experience Matters

This isn’t a market for guesswork. Whether you’re looking to buy at the right price or sell for the best return, local expertise is everything. Having sold hundreds of homes in this neighbourhood, I know what it takes to navigate the ups and downs, identify the right opportunities, and craft a strategy that works. If you’re thinking about making a move, let’s talk about how to get you the best outcome in today’s market.